Rajat Narang
'We are currently at a geopolitical tipping point fraught with risks. Russia asserts brutal imperialism and revisionism and, despite already having a vast nuclear arsenal, is constantly developing new weapons. These include hypersonic nuclear missiles, nuclear-powered missiles said to have unlimited range, nuclear torpedoes, and even a project that is particularly dangerous for humanity: nuclear weapons sent into space. China, too, is building more weapons today than any other country and just recently, exhibited the latest advances in its nuclear triad. The period we are living in also has another characteristic. In the current atmosphere where norms are falling apart, we are facing both an increased risk that conflicts may cross the nuclear threshold. In this dangerous and uncertain world, you have to be feared if you want to be free.' - French President Emmanuel Macron in his March 2026 Speech.The Atomic Age dawned for mankind with the Manhattan Project & Trinity, followed by the tragedy of Hiroshima & Nagasaki followed by the reckless & dangerous nuclear arms race through the Cold War. America’s monopoly on the A-Bomb was ephemeral & short-lived, as other nations, too, soon crossed the Nuclear Rubicon and joined the nuclear bandwagon; with some doing it for the coveted, great power status on the world stage in the grand scheme of geopolitical power-plays; while some others did so simply for establishing parity with their already nuclear neighbors, in the name of nuclear deterrence, and some, simply for existential reasons, i.e., to ensure survival on the world map amid threats from great powers.Thus, through the course of the first 80+ years of the atomic age so far; geopolitics has been the primary driver behind the raisons d’ etre of the 9 nuclear powers to go nuclear. However, some of them also faced the consequences and paid a heavy price for doing so, especially in the farcical, post NPT-era; marked by differential, asymmetric rules of the nuclear game for different global players. Further, there were many others who, too, tried to undertake the treacherous journey across the nuclear Rubicon but were either thwarted or called out by the P5 and the international watchdog.This effort decodes the genesis and unravels the underlying & respective raisons d’être’s of the nuclear weapons programs of the 9 existing nuclear powers globally, traces their evolutionary trajectory and the current state of affairs of their respective nuclear programs with a massive focus on modernization. The double whammy of the deterioration of global security architecture with the whittling down of traditional, rules-based world order coupled with a radical technological generational shift driven by the 3As, namely, AI, Autonomy & Asymmetric Capabilities; is driving an unprecedented wave of nuclear modernization globally which is being led by America, Russia & China under a new, three-way nuclear arms race with the P5+4 having spent $119 billion collectively on nuclear weapons for the year 2025 itself, led by America, which alone contributed $69.4 Billion, or almost 60% of it...
