Robert Shuler
This book shows we must adjust money supply to account for productivity if deflation is to be avoided. The central banker is not profit oriented and can create money at will, not subject to rational investor constraints. Businesses leverage low interest rates enforced by the central bank to grow and increase employment, compensating for the reduced labor necessary for the former level of goods and services. This leveraged difference in returns is the equity premium. Even a one time productivity increase requires a corresponding permanent increase not in the money supply itself, but in the 'rate of increase' of the money supply. Given the steady growth in productivity of the last 100 years, the world economy is now grossly under-stimulated and in danger of precipitous deflation. Both academic models and arguments based on historical events are presented, along with analysis of the meaning of money, investor behavior, and practical techniques for obtaining the equity premium in one’s portfolio.
